The Daily Double

The Daily Double makes one free pick per day, locks it on Arweave before the outcome, and tracks cumulative win/loss stats.

Today’s Bet

Today's pick

Sports

Latest pick on file

Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan — Central Michigan

Date
4 Nov 2026
Category
Sports
Entry
0.49 Central Michigan
Target
2×
Timeframe
Starts 2026-11-05T00:30:00.000Z
Status
Won
Return
2.04×
Confidence
low confidence: uncleared · 20% certain of an edge
Bet Info

Why this pick

Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan — Central Michigan is the pick at 0.49 on Polymarket. Polymarket prices it at 48.5% and The Odds API (11 books) at 48.9%, so the server estimate is 48.7% against a breakeven of 49.7%. It settles on the result of the game that starts 2026-11-05T00:30:00.000Z. At 48.7% this pick is still expected to lose more often than it wins. It missed publish gate(s): ev, certainty, so it is published as low confidence: uncleared rather than a qualified pick.

Why it beat the rest

It missed publish gate(s): ev, certainty, so it is published as low confidence: uncleared rather than a qualified pick. It is the highest-ranked candidate clearing the fallback floor (net payout at least 2x after fees, a known grade key/instrument, not yet started, and a price present). Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan — Central Michigan scored 74 with an EV of 0.98×. FC Porto moneyline — Napoli at FC Porto scored 73 and missed a publish gate; Senators vs. Sabres — Senators scored 72 and missed a publish gate.

The double math

$100 at 0.49 a share settles to $204.08 gross and $104.08 profit if the share pays $1 (2.04×). After Polymarket's taker fee (rate 0.03), the same $100 settles to $201.01 (2.01×).

The numbers

Polymarket prices it at 48.5%, The Odds API (11 books) at 48.9%, estimate 48.7%, breakeven 49.7% after fees, EV 0.98× per $1 staked (a miss counts as zero), certainty 20.4% that the win chance beats breakeven, score 74/100.

Case for

It ranked highest among the floor-clearing candidates, with an estimate of 48.7% and an EV of 0.98×. That is the case for it, even though it did not clear the usual publish gates.

Case against

At 48.7% it loses about 51.3% of the time, and both venues can be wrong in the same direction. A price move before the start would erase the edge.

The edge

Estimate 48.7% against a breakeven of 49.7% at this price gives an EV of 0.98× per $1 staked, counting a miss as zero. Given how far two venues normally disagree, the certainty that the win chance beats breakeven is 20.4%.

Catalyst

It settles on the result of the game that starts 2026-11-05T00:30:00.000Z.

Risks

  • It loses if Central Michigan does not come through; at 48.7% that is the likelier result.
  • Prices can move before the start, and a stale second price would remove the edge.

Invalidation

Invalid if the game or market is canceled or postponed, or if the board prices were stale at lock.

Source

Not financial advice. A pick is an opinion for information and entertainment. You can lose money, including the entire amount. A 2× target is not a forecast that the price will double.

Lock proof

Lock hash
d96989b4167806ee52218c019083b55f137b9a16a5566305f9395434a17067bc
Arweave
Hash-locked — Arweave upload failed
Locked
4 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC
Also considered (100)

Scanned 461 · Eligible 2× 219 · Pickable 0 · Sent to model 0 · polymarket 260 · sports 103 · odds-api 98

Score is 0–100 from the server's own math. Est. is the estimated win chance after fees and shrinkage. EV is that chance times the payout; a pick needs at least 1.03×and a second venue's price for the same side.

  1. SelectedCentral Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan — Central MichiganSports · Polymarket0.49 Central Michigan2.04×74 · 48.7% · 0.98×
  2. ConsideredFC Porto moneyline — Napoli at FC PortoSports · ESPN / DraftKingsFC Porto +1002×73 · 48.4% · 0.97×
  3. ConsideredSenators vs. Sabres — SenatorsSports · Polymarket0.46 Senators2.17×72 · 45.7% · 0.97×
  4. ConsideredBall State vs. UMass — Ball StateSports · Polymarket0.44 Ball State2.27×70 · 43.1% · 0.96×
  5. ConsideredCalgary Flames moneyline — Calgary Flames at Seattle KrakenSports · ESPN / DraftKingsCalgary Flames +1142.14×70 · 45.0% · 0.96×
  6. ConsideredOttawa Senators moneyline — Ottawa Senators at Buffalo SabresSports · ESPN / DraftKingsOttawa Senators +1102.10×69 · 45.3% · 0.95×
  7. ConsideredFlames vs. Kraken — FlamesSports · Polymarket0.46 Flames2.17×69 · 44.9% · 0.95×
  8. ConsideredWill Juventus FC win on 2026-11-05? — YesSports · Polymarket0.48 Yes2.08×69 · 47.9% · 0.97×
  9. ConsideredWill BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-11-04? — NoSports · Polymarket0.43 No2.33×68 · 42.0% · 0.95×
  10. Considered76ers vs. Pistons — 76ersSports · Polymarket0.45 76ers2.22×68 · 43.8% · 0.95×
  11. ConsideredBall State Cardinals moneyline — Ball State Cardinals at Massachusetts MinutemenSports · ESPN / DraftKingsBall State Cardinals +1202.20×68 · 43.2% · 0.95×
  12. ConsideredTrail Blazers vs. Suns — SunsSports · Polymarket0.42 Suns2.38×67 · 41.3% · 0.96×
  13. ConsideredWashington Wizards moneyline — Atlanta Hawks at Washington WizardsSports · ESPN / DraftKingsWashington Wizards +1302.30×67 · 41.9% · 0.96×
  14. ConsideredUtah vs. Canadiens — CanadiensSports · Polymarket0.48 Canadiens2.08×67 · 47.3% · 0.96×
  15. ConsideredPhiladelphia 76ers moneyline — Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit PistonsSports · ESPN / DraftKingsPhiladelphia 76ers +1142.14×67 · 44.3% · 0.95×
  16. ConsideredCavaliers vs. Thunder — CavaliersSports · Polymarket0.40 Cavaliers2.50×67 · 39.3% · 0.95×
  17. ConsideredHawks vs. Wizards — WizardsSports · Polymarket0.43 Wizards2.33×66 · 41.6% · 0.94×
  18. ConsideredWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-04? — NoSports · Polymarket0.37 No2.70×65 · 35.9% · 0.94×
  19. ConsideredSan Jose Sharks moneyline — San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles KingsSports · ESPN / DraftKingsSan Jose Sharks +1402.40×65 · 39.8% · 0.96×
  20. ConsideredMontreal Canadiens moneyline — Utah Mammoth at Montreal CanadiensSports · ESPN / DraftKingsMontreal Canadiens +1022.02×65 · 47.3% · 0.96×
  21. ConsideredPhoenix Suns moneyline — Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix SunsSports · ESPN / DraftKingsPhoenix Suns +1312.31×65 · 41.0% · 0.95×
  22. ConsideredHornets vs. Nets — NetsSports · Polymarket0.40 Nets2.50×65 · 39.0% · 0.95×
  23. ConsideredJuventus moneyline — Juventus at AZ AlkmaarSports · ESPN / DraftKingsJuventus +1002×65 · 47.6% · 0.95×
  24. ConsideredSharks vs. Kings — SharksSports · Polymarket0.41 Sharks2.44×64 · 39.7% · 0.94×
  25. ConsideredWill PSV win on 2026-11-04? — NoSports · Polymarket0.50 No2×64 · 49.9% · 0.97×
Show all 100 considered
  1. ConsideredWill FC Porto win on 2026-11-04? — YesSports · Polymarket0.49 Yes2.04×64 · 48.8% · 0.97×
  2. ConsideredBrooklyn Nets moneyline — Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn NetsSports · ESPN / DraftKingsBrooklyn Nets +1422.42×63 · 39.0% · 0.94×
  3. ConsideredCleveland Cavaliers moneyline — Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City ThunderSports · ESPN / DraftKingsCleveland Cavaliers +1362.36×63 · 39.3% · 0.93×
  4. ConsideredPacers vs. Grizzlies — PacersSports · Polymarket0.32 Pacers3.13×63 · 31.8% · 0.96×
  5. ConsideredToronto Raptors moneyline — Toronto Raptors at Denver NuggetsSports · ESPN / DraftKingsToronto Raptors +1602.60×62 · 36.7% · 0.95×
  6. ConsideredWill Como 1907 win on 2026-11-04? — NoSports · Polymarket0.50 No2×62 · 48.9% · 0.95×
  7. ConsideredWill Everton FC win on 2026-11-06? — NoSports · Polymarket0.44 No2.27×62 · 42.8% · 0.95×
  8. ConsideredWill Viking FK win on 2026-11-04? — NoSports · Polymarket0.34 No2.94×62 · 32.6% · 0.93×
  9. ConsideredWill Club Brugge KV win on 2026-11-04? — YesSports · Polymarket0.28 Yes3.57×61 · 27.4% · 0.95×
  10. ConsideredLA Clippers moneyline — Miami Heat at LA ClippersSports · ESPN / DraftKingsLA Clippers +1702.70×60 · 34.8% · 0.94×
  11. ConsideredRaptors vs. Nuggets — RaptorsSports · Polymarket0.38 Raptors2.63×60 · 36.2% · 0.92×
  12. ConsideredHeat vs. Clippers — ClippersSports · Polymarket0.36 Clippers2.78×59 · 34.4% · 0.92×
  13. ConsideredBall State vs. UMass: O/U 49.5 — OverSports · Polymarket0.48 Over2.08×59 · 47.4% · 0.97×
  14. ConsideredWill FC Porto vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? — YesSports · Polymarket0.27 Yes3.70×58 · 25.9% · 0.92×
  15. ConsideredGame Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) — LYONSports · Polymarket0.46 LYON2.17×58 · 45.3% · 0.96×
  16. ConsideredBlackhawks vs. Panthers — BlackhawksSports · Polymarket0.30 Blackhawks3.33×58 · 28.8% · 0.93×
  17. ConsideredJazz vs. Pelicans — JazzSports · Polymarket0.33 Jazz3.03×58 · 31.5% · 0.92×
  18. ConsideredLens moneyline — Como at LensSports · ESPN / DraftKingsLens +2853.85×58 · 24.6% · 0.95×
  19. ConsideredUtah Jazz moneyline — Utah Jazz at New Orleans PelicansSports · ESPN / DraftKingsUtah Jazz +1912.91×57 · 31.8% · 0.93×
  20. ConsideredPSV vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5 — UnderSports · Polymarket0.48 Under2.08×56 · 47.4% · 0.96×
  21. ConsideredWill SSC Napoli win on 2026-11-04? — YesSports · Polymarket0.25 Yes4×56 · 23.9% · 0.92×
  22. ConsideredGames Total: O/U 3.5 — OverSports · Polymarket0.47 Over2.13×56 · 46.3% · 0.96×
  23. ConsideredDraw — Napoli at FC PortoSports · ESPN / DraftKingsDraw +2553.55×56 · 25.9% · 0.92×
  24. ConsideredSpread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) — SK Slavia PrahaSports · Polymarket0.46 SK Slavia Praha2.17×56 · 45.3% · 0.96×
  25. ConsideredWill Torino FC win on 2026-11-07? — NoSports · Polymarket0.46 No2.17×55 · 46.0% · 0.97×
  26. ConsideredSpread: Hawks (-2.5) — WizardsSports · Polymarket0.48 Wizards2.08×55 · 47.4% · 0.96×
  27. ConsideredTimberwolves vs. Rockets — TimberwolvesSports · Polymarket0.29 Timberwolves3.45×55 · 27.4% · 0.91×
  28. ConsideredWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-07? — NoSports · Polymarket0.44 No2.27×55 · 43.6% · 0.96×
  29. ConsideredClub Brugge moneyline — Club Brugge at PSV EindhovenSports · ESPN / DraftKingsClub Brugge +2353.35×55 · 27.1% · 0.91×
  30. ConsideredDraw — Como at LensSports · ESPN / DraftKingsDraw +2903.90×55 · 23.7% · 0.93×
  31. ConsideredWill Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-11-04? — YesSports · Polymarket0.26 Yes3.85×55 · 24.4% · 0.91×
  32. ConsideredWill PSV vs. Club Brugge KV end in a draw? — YesSports · Polymarket0.22 Yes4.55×55 · 21.1% · 0.92×
  33. ConsideredWill Sabah FK win on 2026-11-04? — YesSports · Polymarket0.15 Yes6.67×54 · 14.7% · 0.94×
  34. ConsideredJaguars vs. Ravens: O/U 40.5 — OverSports · Polymarket0.47 Over2.13×54 · 46.3% · 0.97×
  35. ConsideredWill Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-11-04? — YesSports · Polymarket0.47 Yes2.13×54 · 46.3% · 0.96×
  36. ConsideredWill Racing Club de Lens vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? — YesSports · Polymarket0.25 Yes4×54 · 23.5% · 0.90×
  37. ConsideredSpread: UMass (-3.5) — UMassSports · Polymarket0.43 UMass2.33×54 · 42.2% · 0.96×
  38. ConsideredMinnesota Timberwolves moneyline — Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston RocketsSports · ESPN / DraftKingsMinnesota Timberwolves +2273.27×54 · 27.8% · 0.91×
  39. ConsideredSpread: Viking FK (-1.5) — Viking FKSports · Polymarket0.44 Viking FK2.27×53 · 43.2% · 0.96×
  40. ConsideredChicago Blackhawks moneyline — Chicago Blackhawks at Florida PanthersSports · ESPN / DraftKingsChicago Blackhawks +2103.10×53 · 28.9% · 0.90×
  41. ConsideredSK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 — UnderSports · Polymarket0.44 Under2.27×53 · 43.2% · 0.96×
  42. ConsideredWill Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-11-04? — YesSports · Polymarket0.21 Yes4.76×53 · 19.9% · 0.91×
  43. ConsideredSpread: Rockets (-8.5) — RocketsSports · Polymarket0.46 Rockets2.17×53 · 45.3% · 0.96×
  44. ConsideredIndiana Pacers moneyline — Indiana Pacers at Memphis GrizzliesSports · ESPN / DraftKingsIndiana Pacers +1842.84×53 · 31.2% · 0.89×
  45. ConsideredNapoli moneyline — Napoli at FC PortoSports · ESPN / DraftKingsNapoli +2753.75×53 · 24.0% · 0.90×
  46. ConsideredWill BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? — YesSports · Polymarket0.23 Yes4.35×52 · 21.5% · 0.90×
  47. ConsideredLoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs — Dplus KIASports · Polymarket0.42 Dplus KIA2.38×52 · 41.1% · 0.95×
  48. ConsideredFlyers vs. Rangers — FlyersSports · Polymarket0.42 Flyers2.38×52 · 40.8% · 0.94×
  49. ConsideredSpread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) — Manchester City FCSports · Polymarket0.41 Manchester City FC2.44×51 · 40.1% · 0.95×
  50. ConsideredSpread: Celtics (-11.5) — CelticsSports · Polymarket0.46 Celtics2.17×51 · 45.3% · 0.96×
  51. ConsideredReal Madrid vs. Panathinaikos — Real MadridSports · Polymarket0.45 Real Madrid2.22×51 · 44.3% · 0.96×
  52. ConsideredPhiladelphia Flyers moneyline — Philadelphia Flyers at New York RangersSports · ESPN / DraftKingsPhiladelphia Flyers +1302.30×51 · 41.1% · 0.94×
  53. ConsideredWill Viking FK vs. Sabah FK end in a draw? — YesSports · Polymarket0.18 Yes5.56×51 · 17.0% · 0.91×
  54. ConsideredSpread: Celtics (-12.5) — CelticsSports · Polymarket0.44 Celtics2.27×51 · 43.2% · 0.96×
  55. ConsideredWill Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-11-04? — NoSports · Polymarket0.42 No2.38×51 · 41.1% · 0.95×
  56. ConsideredWill RB Leipzig win on 2026-11-04? — YesSports · Polymarket0.18 Yes5.56×50 · 16.9% · 0.90×
  57. ConsideredWill CA Paranaense win on 2026-11-04? — YesSports · Polymarket0.43 Yes2.33×50 · 42.2% · 0.95×
  58. ConsideredBruins vs. Penguins — PenguinsSports · Polymarket0.50 Penguins2×50 · 49.9% · 0.97×
  59. ConsideredSpread: Celtics (-8.5) — BucksSports · Polymarket0.43 Bucks2.33×50 · 42.2% · 0.95×
  60. ConsideredWill Sevilla FC win on 2026-11-06? — YesSports · Polymarket0.50 Yes2×49 · 50.0% · 0.98×
  61. ConsideredWill Venezia FC vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? — YesSports · Polymarket0.27 Yes3.70×49 · 25.5% · 0.91×
  62. ConsideredWill RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? — YesSports · Polymarket0.20 Yes5×49 · 18.4% · 0.89×
  63. ConsideredBucks vs. Celtics — BucksSports · Polymarket0.20 Bucks5×49 · 18.6% · 0.90×
  64. ConsideredJaguars vs. Ravens — RavensSports · Polymarket0.18 Ravens5.56×49 · 16.8% · 0.91×
  65. ConsideredWill KV Kortrijk win on 2026-10-23? — YesSports · Polymarket0.41 Yes2.44×49 · 40.1% · 0.95×
  66. ConsideredDucks vs. Oilers — DucksSports · Polymarket0.38 Ducks2.63×49 · 37.0% · 0.95×
  67. ConsideredSpread: Pistons (-2.5) — 76ersSports · Polymarket0.49 76ers2.04×48 · 48.4% · 0.96×
  68. ConsideredHornets vs. Nets: O/U 213.5 — OverSports · Polymarket0.49 Over2.04×48 · 48.4% · 0.96×
  69. ConsideredHawks vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5 — OverSports · Polymarket0.50 Over2×48 · 49.5% · 0.97×
  70. ConsideredRolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac — Tomas MachacSports · Polymarket0.39 Tomas Machac2.56×48 · 38.1% · 0.95×
  71. ConsideredTrail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 227.5 — UnderSports · Polymarket0.50 Under2×48 · 49.5% · 0.97×
  72. ConsideredSpread: Thunder (-3.5) — ThunderSports · Polymarket0.50 Thunder2×48 · 49.5% · 0.97×
  73. ConsideredWill AC Milan win on 2026-11-05? — NoSports · Polymarket0.28 No3.57×48 · 25.6% · 0.88×
  74. ConsideredCounter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs — BetBoom TeamSports · Polymarket0.36 BetBoom Team2.78×48 · 35.0% · 0.94×
  75. ConsideredLakers vs. Kings: O/U 234.5 — OverSports · Polymarket0.49 Over2.04×47 · 48.4% · 0.96×

Win Rate

Every figure is counted from the picks on file.

Win %41.7%
Total bets12
Wins5
Losses7
Current streak1
Best streak2

Win % is wins divided by graded picks. Total bets counts posted picks that are locked, pending, won, or lost. An explicit no-pick day is not a bet. Current streak and best streak count consecutive winning days in date order. A loss resets the run. Days with no pick do not.

41.7%Win %
5 won · 7 lost
Last 52 weeks · UTC

Scroll if the year runs past the edge.

Daily results for the last 52 weeks through 5 Nov 2026. 12 graded picks are marked. Hollow days have nothing posted. A grey day is an explicit no pick.

  • Win
  • Loss
  • Nothing posted
  • No pick
  • Pending
  • Today

Results

Every graded pick — date, pick, entry, result, return — and the Arweave proof log behind it.

Scroll horizontally to read every column.

Live record, newest first. Computed from the picks on file.
DatePickEntryResultReturnProof
4 Nov 2026Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan — Central Michiganlow confidence: uncleared0.49Won2.04×Hash-locked
3 Nov 2026Blues vs. Rangers — Blueslow confidence: uncleared0.47Lost0×Hash-locked
2 Nov 2026Heat vs. Lakers — Heatlow confidence: uncleared0.45Lost0×Hash-locked
1 Nov 2026No pick today0No pick—Hash-locked
31 Oct 2026No pick today0No pick—Hash-locked
30 Oct 2026No pick today0No pick—Hash-locked
29 Oct 2026No pick today0No pick—Hash-locked
28 Oct 2026No pick today0No pick—Hash-locked
27 Oct 2026No pick today0No pick—Hash-locked
26 Oct 2026Grizzlies vs. Jazz — Grizzlieslow confidence: uncleared0.48Won2.08×Hash-locked
25 Oct 2026Raptors vs. Timberwolves — Raptorslow confidence: uncleared0.50Lost0×Hash-locked
24 Oct 2026Wizards vs. Bulls — Wizardslow confidence: uncleared0.47Won2.13×Hash-locked
23 Oct 2026Timberwolves vs. Magic — Timberwolveslow confidence: uncleared0.50Won2×Hash-locked
22 Oct 2026Bulls vs. Bucks — Buckslow confidence: uncleared0.50Lost0×Hash-locked
21 Oct 2026Hornets vs. Nets — Netslow confidence: uncleared0.49Lost0×Hash-locked
20 Oct 2026Avalanche vs. Devils — Avalanchelow confidence: uncleared0.48Lost0×Hash-locked
19 Oct 2026Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-20? — Yeslow confidence: uncleared0.46Lost0×Hash-locked
18 Oct 2026Hurricanes vs. Flames — FlamesModel: google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite0.34Won2.99×Hash-locked

Arweave proof log

Every transaction from I3Hkx3j583…0qkgZHEIDo, newest first. This is the public address supplied for the after-the-fact 2026-10-18 upload; the full address is I3Hkx3j583PCMkS-A_n8zk4tzW98by9JH0qkgZHEIDo.

Scroll horizontally to read every column.

Live Arweave feed, newest first. Showing 7 transactions.
DateTransactionAppContent typeBlock
31 Oct 2026, 21:13 UTCxIL8cPsKb558…A77NWsXc7fZA—image/jpeg2032931
31 Oct 2026, 21:13 UTCMOFhp64DRpTe…YqJfNg4-3grs—application/x.arweave-manifest+json2032931
31 Oct 2026, 21:13 UTCTUZu6ZuY2X01…vOvUcp-IVoqA—image/jpeg2032931
31 Oct 2026, 21:13 UTCN9Vk8XA8QXXY…oinSCn-8aZuo—image/jpeg2032931
31 Oct 2026, 21:13 UTCRiMjRfdq3jp2…iZ8R-VsPZ2Yo—image/jpeg2032931
31 Oct 2026, 21:13 UTCOEJDwJfN7o2B…xr1MlRCxrDTQ—image/jpeg2032931
19 Oct 2026, 17:18 UTCxfklWCupQ6HV…gmMXYzOYNcg4DailyDoubleapplication/json2024683

About

One penny, doubled daily
One penny doubled for thirty daysA true exponential from one cent on day 0 to $10,737,418.24 on day 30. The early days sit near the floor because the scale is linear. Illustrative only.

Day 30$10,737,418.24

  1. Day 1$0.02
  2. Day 10$10.24
  3. Day 20$10,485.76

One penny, doubled every day for 30 days, comes out to $10,737,418.24.

How it works

  1. 01

    Posted daily

    Exactly one pick a day, free to read. No account and no paywall. When nothing clears the bar, the highest-ranked candidate is still published as low confidence: uncleared.

  2. 02

    Locked on Arweave

    The pick is written to Arweave before the outcome. Arweave stores it as a permanent public file: once the transaction confirms, the pick and its timestamp stay online and cannot be edited or deleted.

  3. 03

    Graded in public

    After the result, the pick is marked won or lost. Win % updates. Losses stay on the record forever. That is the point.

How the pick is made

A scheduled job reads public prices from Polymarket prediction markets (all event types), ESPN scoreboards for sports moneyline odds, and The Odds API consensus lines. Only sports betting and prediction markets are considered — no crypto, memecoins, stocks, or options. If a source does not return a verifiable price, it contributes nothing — prices are never filled in.

A fixed filter keeps only markets that can mathematically reach 2×, with a liquidity floor. The server then scores every name with its own math before any model reads it: the executable price after fees, the break-even win chance, and an estimated win chance. That estimate starts from the market's price and moves toward a second venue's current price for the same side (DraftKings via ESPN, or The Odds API consensus, against Polymarket), with only a few points of disagreement ever counted. It also gets a certainty: how sure the math is that the true win chance beats breakeven, given how far two venues normally disagree. A name is pickable only if a win pays at least 2× after fees, the estimate is at least 33%, the estimate times the payout is at least 1.03, the certainty is at least 90%, the venues are liquid and close enough that neither quote looks stale, and the price is fresh and not moving fast.

Most days nothing clears that bar. The slot is still filled: the highest-ranked candidate that can still be graded is published as low confidence: uncleared. On the record, buying those uncleared names loses money after fees, which is why the label is on the card. When something is pickable, Vercel AI Gateway reviews the pickable names. It can choose one or veto them all — a veto still publishes the top remaining name as low confidence: uncleared — and it must quote the server's numbers rather than compute its own. It tries anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 first and walks a shorter chain when that model is unavailable, down to a free-tier model. Every number on the card comes from the server. The estimate is locked in the hash with the pick, so it can be checked against the result. It is an estimate, not a promise: most picks are under 50% and lose more often than they win.

For sports games, the reviewer also gets structured ESPN team research — recent form, records, and days rest, with timestamps — and may cite only that research. Long-priced sides can be marked extreme risk. A pick is high confidence at a certainty of 95% or more and medium below that. A no-pick row is only stored when there is no candidate at all (every source failed, nothing passed the 2× pre-filter, or nothing left is gradeable). Historical no-pick days stay on the calendar and are not a bet or a loss.